Hurricane Simon in Mexico

The story so far

As of October 11, 2026

Hurricane Simon is a high-end Category 4 storm hugging Mexico’s west-central Pacific coast, with its eye tracking close to Jalisco and Colima and top sustained winds around 150 mph. It is moving slowly, roughly walking speed, parallel to the shoreline. Whether the center crosses the coast is still uncertain, but the storm’s strongest winds and rain are already raking communities along the water. President Claudia Sheinbaum has urged residents in Jalisco, Colima, Nayarit and Michoacan to remain indoors until authorities declare the danger past.

The slow, near-shore track is the fact that explains the rest. Staying over warm water lets Simon keep its strength, while its most intense rain and wind bands sweep ashore for longer. Totals of 25 to 50 centimeters of rain are expected widely, with pockets up to 76 centimeters, on terrain that rises quickly from the coast; that combination points to life-threatening flooding and mudslides. Along the immediate coast, a storm-driven rise in sea level and large waves, reported up to nine meters, make coastal flooding and battering surf a major risk.

Authorities have shifted from preparation to active protection. Civil Protection placed 28 municipalities in Jalisco and Colima under its highest cyclone warning and another 93 under high alert. Puerto Vallarta’s airport has closed, and nonessential activities and travel in the city were suspended from 4 p.m. Evacuations are underway from exposed coastal settlements, including by boat; shelters in Puerto Vallarta were already receiving evacuees by Saturday.

What is at stake now is less the exact landfall point and more the storm’s duration and reach over a densely populated, mountainous coast. Tourist zones like Puerto Vallarta can shelter in sturdy hotels, but hillside neighborhoods and smaller towns inland from the beaches face the brunt of mudslides, flooding and prolonged power outages. The port of Manzanillo and coastal roads are exposed to wind damage, debris and high water. Through Monday, the decisive variable is how long Simon’s core lingers near Cabo Corrientes and adjacent coastline; the flooding risk is already set by the storm’s slow speed and the volume of rain it is delivering.