New Facts: NYT/Siena poll shows Paxton-Talarico tie

A new statewide poll of likely Texas voters puts James Talarico and Ken Paxton tied at 47 percent each. More voters say they want Republicans to control the Senate, 50 percent to 44 percent, yet Paxton is not matching that edge. Earlier June independent polling averaged Paxton ahead by about one point.

Voters rate Talarico higher on character, 56 percent saying he has good character versus 38 percent for Paxton. Half of voters call Paxton too extreme, compared with 43 percent for Talarico. A wide gender gap has women backing Talarico by 18 points and men backing Paxton by a similar margin.

Talarico leads independents by 27 points and is taking 61 percent of Hispanic voters. He draws 9 percent of 2024 Trump voters, while Paxton draws 1 percent of 2024 Harris voters. Paxton holds 91 percent of Republicans but shows little crossover.

The economy is the top issue for 28 percent of voters, and 60 percent disapprove of Trump’s handling of cost-of-living issues. Talarico is winning voters who put the economy and inflation first and has just aired a spot focused on prices. Paxton does better with voters focused on immigration or control of Congress.

AI-synthesized from multiple reported sources