New Facts: Talarico Takes Four-Point Lead Over Paxton

A new Texas Pulse poll put James Talarico at 47 percent to Ken Paxton’s 43 among likely voters. The survey of 619 Texans was conducted July 27–30 and has a margin of error of 4.7 points. In June the same series had the race tied at 46–46, a one-point gain for Talarico and a three-point drop for Paxton.

Talarico led independents 53–30, women 53–40, and voters ages 18 to 34 by 66–23, while Paxton held advantages among Republicans and voters 65 and older. Compared with June, Talarico’s lead among women widened and Paxton’s edge among men narrowed. Voters in the poll gave Talarico the edge on making prices more affordable, dealing with the war in Iran, keeping Texans safe, and managing the water supply, while Paxton held a narrow lead on border security.

A separate poll released a day earlier by YouGov and 254 Labs showed Talarico ahead 48–45 with 6 percent undecided and independents breaking his way, with 57 percent favoring him and 20 percent still undecided. A late-July Fox News poll likewise found 68 percent of independents backing Talarico.

AI-synthesized from multiple reported sources