New Facts: UN Warns of Imminent Strong El Niño Impact

The United Nations warned that El Niño is now developing and will shape global weather in the months ahead. The outlook puts the chance of El Niño fully establishing between June and August at 80%, with probabilities near or above 90% that it will persist through at least November. “El Niño is arriving on our doorstep in the coming months with 90% certainty,” António Guterres said, urging governments to prepare.

Forecast models point to at least a moderate event, with nearly a 60% chance it becomes strong by autumn and roughly a one‑in‑three chance it reaches very strong levels, though “super El Niño” is not an official category. A deep reservoir of heat beneath the tropical Pacific, running more than 6 C above average in places, is feeding the surface warming, and some computer model runs peak above 2.5 C by fall. Scientists still caution there is uncertainty on the peak, and brief surges of westerly winds that helped jump‑start the pattern could later limit how strong it gets.

Above‑normal temperatures are forecast across almost all land areas from June to August. Typical El Niño wet and dry zones are already showing up in regional outlooks, with below‑normal rainfall flagged for the northern Horn of Africa and South Asia, and drier, warmer conditions in Central America. A quieter Atlantic hurricane season and a busier central and eastern Pacific are expected, and the added ocean and air heat could push global temperatures to new highs in 2026 and again in 2027 depending on how the event evolves.

AI-synthesized from multiple reported sources