Tropical Storm Nolo Near Hawaii

The story so far

As of September 24, 2026

Tropical Storm Nolo is intensifying south of Hawaii’s Big Island, with sustained winds around 60 mph and the storm still moving very slowly. A hurricane watch is in effect for the Big Island, an alert that hurricane conditions are possible within about 48 hours. Forecasts call for Nolo to reach hurricane strength by Thursday night and it could become a major hurricane over the weekend.

Flooding is the central danger. The Big Island is expected to see 15 to 20 inches of rain with local totals that could approach 35 inches, enough for life‑threatening flash floods and mudslides in steep terrain. Maui could see 5 to 10 inches, with local amounts near 20 inches, while the other islands may get 1 to 3 inches with pockets up to 6 inches. Ocean water could rise 1 to 3 feet above normally dry ground in parts of the Big Island if peak surge arrives at high tide, and large, dangerous surf and rip currents will build Friday. Brief tornadoes or large waterspouts are possible near the storm’s path.

What ties the forecast together is the track and the storm’s structure. Nolo is expected to drift north to north‑northeast through Friday, then make a sharp turn west near the Big Island. A pass just southwest of the island would point the storm’s wet side directly at the windward slopes, funneling deep tropical moisture onto land. Warm waters are fueling strengthening, and the storm’s slow pace means heavy rain can persist. Small shifts in track will decide who feels the strongest winds, but they will not remove the flooding risk.

This comes on the heels of flooding from Hurricane Lala in August and heavy rain from Hurricane Lowell earlier this month, leaving saturated ground and strained infrastructure. Hawaii officials have closed state and county offices and public schools on the Big Island for Thursday and Friday, with Maui closures on Friday, and have shut parks and trails. Bands of rain are expected to reach the Big Island first, with tropical‑storm‑force winds possible Friday and hurricane conditions possible by Friday night into Saturday. Conditions should ease later in the weekend if the storm turns west as expected.