New Facts: Poll Shows Lula and Bolsonaro Tied in Race

A new Nexus survey conducted Aug. 21–23 shows President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva at 46% and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro at 45% in a potential head-to-head second round. The one-point gap sits inside the poll’s two-point margin of error, making it a statistical tie.

The same poll puts Lula at 41% in the first round, short of a majority needed to win outright. In other hypothetical second-round matchups against different rivals, Lula leads.

Rejection is high on both sides: 49% say they would not vote for Lula under any circumstances, and 48% say the same about Bolsonaro. Views of Lula’s government are nearly even at 48% approval and 49% disapproval. The result narrows a July Nexus runoff gap from four points to one, while a separate Datafolha survey the same week still had Lula ahead.

AI-synthesized from multiple reported sources